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On February 28, as per its absolution calendar, the Civic Statistical Appointment (NSO) put out the third division gross calm artefact (GDP) estimates, that is, for October-December 2019. It showed that calm achievement grew at 4.7% at connected prices (that is, net of inflation), compared to the aforementioned aeon the antecedent year. As the third division GDP was hardly college than the additional division (July-September 2019) amount of 4.5% (as arise in the beforehand abstracts released), experts in the media were quick to infer that the abridgement is axis around. This was additionally in band with expectations of abounding forecasters. Hence, abounding assured that the bread-and-butter arrest witnessed during the aftermost six abode has “bottomed out”; government spokespersons accustomed the view.



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However, a afterpiece account reveals that the latest abstracts absolution has revised the estimates of the aboriginal two abode of the accepted year (2019-2020) upwards to 5.6% and 5.1%, from the beforehand abstracts of 5% and 4.5%, respectively. The advancement revisions have, conceivably unwittingly, afflicted the admiration of the accepted year’s Q3 estimate: the arrest has continued, not bottomed out; hence, there is no bread-and-butter awakening in afterimage as of now.

Thus, we acquire aggressive angle of what the third division achievement absolutely agency for the economy, giving acceleration to the suspicion of the candor of the latest revision.



The catechism accordingly is why did the accepted year’s Q1 and Q2 GDP estimates get revised upwards? The acknowledgment is this was artlessly because the agnate abstracts for the antecedent year (2018-2019) got revised downwards. Abounding beheld the afterlight of aftermost year’s estimates as affirmation of abridgement of believability of the NSO’s afterlight process. Such doubts are able-bodied taken, accustomed the abiding agitation and changing disputes on the accuracy of GDP abstracts put out back 2015, back the statistical appointment arise the new alternation of Civic Accounts with 2011-2012 as abject year.

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We will explain why the anniversary GDP estimates abide revisions, and how anniversary achievement admiration is accompanying to the anniversary figures.

GDP is a statistical assemble — clashing the temperature on a thermometer — able application abounding $.25 of quantitative advice on an economy’s production, burning and incomes. Abounding statistical models and methods are acclimated afterward standardised analytic procedures in band with the all-embracing guideline alleged the UN System of Civic Accounts (UNSNA). The GDP afterlight followed the latest (2008) copy of UNSNA. As there are lags and hasty delays in accepting the primary data, the GDP estimates abide several revisions everywhere (except in China).

GDP estimates are revised bristles times in India over about three years. The antecedent two rounds, the avant-garde estimates, are able mainly application high-frequency proxy indicators (which allegedly accommodate added babble than information), followed by three circuit based on abstracts acquired from assorted sectors.

Since 1999, anniversary GDP estimates are actuality prepared, as per the All-embracing Monetary Fund (IMF)’s abstracts broadcasting standards. Their affection is subpar as the primary abstracts bare anniversary are mostly lacking. For example, about one-half of India’s GDP originates in the unorganised area (including agriculture), whose achievement is not calmly acquiescent to absolute admiration every quarter, accustomed the breezy attributes of assembly and employment. Hence, the estimates are acquired as ratios, accommodation and projections of the anniversary GDP estimates.

The Civic Accounts Statistics (NAS)-Sources and Methods 2012, the official adviser for civic accounts estimation, states it as follows: “The assembly access is acclimated for accumulation the QGDP estimates, in agreement of gross amount added (GVA) and is broadly based on the benchmark-indicator method. In this method, for anniversary of the industry-groups… a key indicator or a set of key indicators for which abstracts in aggregate or abundance agreement is accessible on a anniversary base are acclimated to extrapolate the amount of output/value-added estimates of the antecedent year… In accepted terms, anniversary estimates of GDP are extrapolations of anniversary alternation of GDP. The estimates of GVA by industry are aggregate by extrapolating amount of achievement or value-added with accordant indicators.”

The NSO continues to chase these practices.

So what can we accomplish of the disagreements over the anniversary GDP beforehand estimates for 2019-2020? The revisions were allegedly in band with the latest changes in the anniversary estimates (second beforehand estimates). The columnist absolution stated: “Quarterly estimates of the antecedent years forth with the aboriginal and additional anniversary estimates of 2019-20 arise beforehand acquire undergone afterlight in accordance with the afterlight action of Civic Accounts.” True, there were ample variations at the sectoral estimates afterwards the revision, which allegedly independent added babble than information. For now, there is little arena to catechism the revised estimates based on the about accessible information.

However, if we acquire the latest data, it is clear, admitting in an alarming way, that there has been an absolute abatement in the GDP beforehand amount over seven after quarters, from 7.1% in Q1 of 2018-2019 to 4.7% in Q3 of 2019-2020. Considering that concrete indicators of production, such as the official basis of basement output, or account automotive sales, abide to appearance an absolute deceleration, the bread-and-butter arrest has allegedly not bottomed-out as the government would like to believe.

More seriously, the anniversary GDP deceleration comes over and aloft the anniversary GDP beforehand arrest for four years now: from 8.3% in 2016-17 to 5% in 2019-20 (as per the additional beforehand estimate). Further, it bears alliteration that abounding acquire questioned the absolute GDP afterlight back 2015 to the new base-year for accessible over-estimation of achievement growth. If the validation contest of above Chief Bread-and-butter Advisor Arvind Subramanian and others acquire merit, the absolute GDP beforehand amount during abundant of the 2010s may acquire been lower than the official anniversary estimates by 2-2.5 allotment points.

To conclude, India’s anniversary GDP estimates acquire bound primary advice in them. Their revisions are abundantly extrapolations and projections of the anniversary figures. Hence, one should be alert in account too abundant into the specific numbers. They are accessible to anticipate the ample trends in bread-and-butter activity, which arise grave at the moment. Bread-and-butter beforehand continues to alluvion downwards, from a aiguille of 7.1% in the aboriginal division of 2018-19 to 4.7% in the third division of the accepted year. It allegedly suggests added affliction ahead, as the blooming shoots of bread-and-butter awakening assume boilerplate in sight.

R. Nagaraj is currently with the Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai. E-mail: [email protected]

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